Introduction
On June 21, 2003 we have started an experiment in prediction of strong
earthquakes, with characteristic lead time months, using the prediction
algorithm Reverse Tracing of Precursors (RTP). Our goal is to test this
algorithm, sharing the results with the potentially interested specialists.
The idea of the algorithm and its brief description can be found in the
following publications:
V. Keilis-Borok, P. Shebalin,
A. Gabrielov, D. Turcotte, PEPI, 2004
P. Shebalin,
V. Keilis-Borok, A. Gabrielov, I. Zaliapin, D. Turcotte; Tectonophysics, 2005
Other connected references:
P. Shebalin, V. Keilis-Borok, I. Zaliapin, S. Uyeda, T. Nagao, and N. Tsybin; EPS, 2004
P. Shebalin, Tectonophysics, 2006
Starting from October 1, 2005 we test in parallel two versions of the
prediction algorithm. Test A concerns exactly the same algorithm as before. In
test B we made one change: we increased by factor 2.5 the value of the numerical
parameter, R, thus expanding the area of alarm.
Currently we consider prediction in the four regions:
2. Summary of RTP predictions, June 2003 - March 2012
Successful prediction of two large earthquakes near Kuril islands, 15 November 2006, MW=8.3, and 13 January 2007, MW=8.2
Successful prediction of Andreanof Islands earthquake, Aleutians, 19 December 2007, Mw=7.2
New Successful prediction of Kurile Islands earthquake, 19 April 2013, Mw=7.2
3. Current predictions (password protected)
4.
Archive
V. Keilis-Borok |
P. Shebalin, shebalin@mitp.ru
We will be happy to answer your questions and appreciate your comments and
suggestions.
Last updated: 2013-11-16 18:18:15