Experiment in prospective earthquake prediction
made in advance with a lead time months
using Reverse Tracing of Precursors (RTP)


On June 21, 2003 we have started an experiment in prediction of strong earthquakes, with characteristic lead time months, using the prediction algorithm Reverse Tracing of Precursors (RTP). Our goal is to test this algorithm, sharing the results with the potentially interested specialists.

The idea of the algorithm and its brief description can be found in the following publications:
V. Keilis-Borok, P. Shebalin, A. Gabrielov, D. Turcotte, PEPI, 2004
P. Shebalin, V. Keilis-Borok, A. Gabrielov, I. Zaliapin, D. Turcotte; Tectonophysics, 2005

Other connected references:

P. Shebalin, V. Keilis-Borok, I. Zaliapin, S. Uyeda, T. Nagao, and N. Tsybin; EPS, 2004

P. Shebalin, Tectonophysics, 2006

Starting from October 1, 2005 we test in parallel two versions of the prediction algorithm. Test A concerns exactly the same algorithm as before. In test B we made one change: we increased by factor 2.5 the value of the numerical parameter, R, thus expanding the area of alarm.

1. Regions considered

Currently we consider prediction in the four regions:

  1. California, south-western Oregon and western Nevada                        outlining polygon
  2. Central and northern Honsu, Hokkaido and southern Kurils                 outlining polygon
  3. Central Apennines, Alps, Northern Dinarides and Po Valley                outlining polygon
  4. Eastern Mediterranean                                                                           outlining polygon
  5. North Pacific                                                                                                      outlining polygon

2. Summary of RTP predictions, June 2003 - March 2012

Successful prediction of two large earthquakes near Kuril islands, 15 November 2006, MW=8.3, and 13 January 2007, MW=8.2

Successful prediction of Andreanof Islands earthquake, Aleutians, 19 December 2007, Mw=7.2

New Successful prediction of Kurile Islands earthquake, 19 April 2013, Mw=7.2

3. Current predictions (password protected)

4. Archive


 V. Keilis-Borok

P. Shebalin, shebalin@mitp.ru

We will be happy to answer your questions and appreciate your comments and suggestions.

Last updated: 2013-11-16 18:18:15