Summary of the experiment of prospective prediction using RTP algorithm, June 2003 – March 2012

 

 #

Region/

target

earthquakes

Period of

alarm

Prediction

was put on

record on

Target or near target earthquake

Prediction

outcome

Probability of a

success by chance

 

1

Japan

MJMA>=7.0

Mar 27, 2003 -   Jan 27, 2004

July 1, 2003

Sep 25, 2003,

Mw=8.3

within the alarm

Correct

0.29

2

California

MANSS>=6.4

May 5,  2003 -  Feb 27, 2004

June 24, 2003

Dec 22, 2003,

M=6.5

within the alarm

Correct

0.01

3

Southern California

MANSS>=6.4

Oct 29, 2003 -  Sep 05, 2004

May 12, 2004

 

False alarm

0.08

4

Honsu,

Japan

Mw>=7.2

Feb 8, 2004 -  Nov 8, 2004

June 1, 2004

Sep 5, 2004, Mw=7.4

outside the region;  

127 km outside alarm

False alarm

 

0.03

5

Northern

Dinarides

Mw>=5.5

Feb 29, 2004 -  Nov 29, 2004

May 12, 2004

Jul 12, 2004,

Mw=5.2, ML=5.7

within the alarm

False alarm

 

0.05

6,

6a

6b

6c

6d

6e

6f

Southern

California

MANSS>=6.4

Nov 14, 2004 -  Aug 14, 2005

Jun 17, 2005 - Mar 17, 2006

Mar 18, 2006 - Sep 18, 2006

 Mar 18, 2006 - Dec 24, 2006

Dec 25, 2006 - May 2, 2007

May 3, 2007 – Jan 28, 2008

Jan 29, 2008 – Sep 26, 2008

Nov 16, 2004

Oct 5, 2005

Mar 17, 2006

Mar 30, 2006

Dec 24, 2006

May 2, 2007

Jan 28, 2008

 

False alarm

 

4.5 x 9 months

0.39

7

Oregon

off coast

MANSS>=6.4

Nov 16, 2004  -  Aug 16, 2005

Jan 29, 2005

Jun 15, 2005,

Mw=7.2

60 km outside alarm

False alarm

 

0.01

8,

8a

Central Italy

M>=5.5

Jan 1, 2005 - Oct 1, 2005

 May 6, 2006 - Feb 6, 2006 

Jan 29, 2005,

Oct 1, 2005

 

False alarm

1.5 x 9 months

0.16 

9

Honsu,

Japan

Mw>=7.2

June 2, 2005 -  Mar 2, 2006

Oct 1, 2005 

Aug 16, 2005,

Mw=7.2

within the alarm

Correct (*)

0.03

10,

10a

Hokkaido-S. Kurils

Mw>=7.2

May 11, 2006 - Feb 11, 2007

Sep 30, 2006 - June 30, 2007

May 22, 2006

Oct 9, 2006

Nov 15, 2006

Mw=8.3

within the alarm

Correct

1.5 x 9 months

0.31

11

Italy,

M>=5.5

May 2, 2006 -- Feb 3, 2007

June 12, 2006

 

False alarm

0.11

12

Oregon

off coast

MANSS>=6.4

Sept 23, 2006 - June 23, 2007

Nov 10, 2006

 

False alarm

0.01

NP1,

NP1a

Aleutians

Mw>=7.2

Oct 28, 2006 - July 28, 2007

July 29, 2007- Jan 28, 2008

Nov 10, 2006

July 28, 2007

Dec 19, 2007

Mw=7.2

within the alarm

Correct

1.7 x 9 months

0.10

14,

14a

Central California

MANSS>=6.4

Jan 17, 2007 - Oct 17, 2007

Oct 18, 2007 - Jan 14, 2008

Feb 1, 2007

Oct 31, 2007

 

False alarm

1.3 x 9 months

0.01

NP2

Oregon off coast

MANSS>=7.2

Aug 24, 2007 - May 24, 2008

Jan 5, 2008

 

False alarm

0.01

16

Oregon off coast

MANSS>=6.4

Apr 14, 2008 - Jan 14, 2009

Apr 22, 2008

 

False alarm

0.01

17

Italy,

M>=5.5

Apr 7, 2008 - Jan 7, 2009

Dec 23, 2008

Dec 23, 2008, M=5.4

within the alarm

False alarm

0.02

18

Central California

MANSS>=7.2

Jan 29, 2009 - Oct 29, 2009

Feb 22, 2009

 

False alarm

0.01

NP3

Oregon off coast

MANSS>=7.2

Jul 17, 2008 - Apr 17, 2009

Jul 18, 2008

 

False alarm

0.01

20

(NP4)

Kurils,

M>=7.2

Oct 21, 2009 - Jul 21, 2010

Dec 16, 2009

 

False alarm

0.02

21

California

MANSS>=6.4

Jun 15, 2010 - Mar 15, 2011

Jun 17, 2010

 

False alarm

0.03

22NP

Kamchatka

MANSS>=7.2

Jan 29, 2011 - Oct 29, 2011

Mar 12, 2011

 

False alarm

0.01

23jp

Japan,

M>=7.2

Mar 7, 2011 - Dec 7, 2011

Mar 12, 2011

Mar 11, 2011,

Mw=9.1

within the alarm

Correct (*)

0.12

24cn

California-Nevada

MANSS>=6.4

Mar 11, 2011 – Dec 11, 2011

Apr 24, 2011

 

False alarm

0.01

25np

Kurils-Kamchatka

M>=7.2

Oct 30, 2011 - Dec 14, 2011

Oct 31, 2011

 

False alarm

0.02

26cn

California-Nevada

MANSS>=6.4

Dec 12, 2011 - Jul 21, 2012

Dec 11, 2011

 

Current

0.01

 

(*) Due to technical delay of data, the alarm was determined after the earthquakes Aug 16, 2005 and Mar 11, 2011

 

Some integral statistics

 

Expected rate of targets in alarms

k

Predicted

n

Number of

alarms

Expected rate of targets in regions

K 

Occurred

N

t=k/K

t+h

probability gain

n/k/(N/K)

California

0.542

1

7

2.587

2

0.21

0.71

2.38

Honshu to Kurils

0.666

3

4

3.370

3

0.20

0.20

5.06

Italy+

0.337

0(1)

4

2.208

1(2)

0.15

1.13(0.63)

(3.27)

E. Mediterranean

0

0

0

0.617

0

0

0

 

N. Pacific (without Honshu to Kurils)

0.130

1

3

1.854

1

0.07

0.13

14.25

total

1.676

5(6)

19

10.638

7(8)

0.13

0.42(0.26)

4.53(4.76)

 

Statistics k includes one current alarm

Values in brackets - if to consider Bevec earthquake, Jul 12, 2004, ML=5,.7, MW=5.2, as a target of prediction

 

 

Large earthquakes in and near test areas

25-Sep-03

Japan

MJMA= 8.0

predicted

22-Dec-03

Central CA

M=6.5

predicted

12-Jul-04

N. Dinarides

MW=5.2

not a target: small magnitude

(near miss, ML = 5.7)

5-Sep-04

Japan

MW = 7.4

not a target: outside region;

(near miss, 140 km outside alarm)

15-Jun-05

CA Offshore

MW = 7.2

failure to predict

(near miss, 60 km outside alarm)

17-Jun-05

CA Offshore

MW = 6.6

not a target: aftershock

(outside prediction)

16-Aug-05

sea near Japan

MW = 7.2

predicted (due to technical delay of data, the alarm was determined after the earthquake)

15-Nov-06

Kuriles

MW = 8.3

predicted

13-Jan-07

Kuriles

MW = 8.1

not a target: aftershock

(within prediction)

19-Dec-07

Aleutians

MW = 7.2

predicted

23-Dec-08

Italy

M=5.4

not a target: small magnitude

15-Jan-09

Kurils

MW = 7.4

not a target: aftershock of the event of 13.01.07 (no alarm)

06-Apr-09

Central Italy

M=6.3

failure to predict

10-Jan-10

Offshore California

M = 6.5

failure to predict (predicted with updated catalog)

04-Apr-10

Baja California

M=7.2

failure to predict (predicted with updated catalog)

24-Jun-11

Aleutians

MW = 7.3

failure to predict (predicted with updated catalog)